Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 49.88%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Santos had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
0.92) 
-0.28) 
