Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 31.21% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
-0.88) 
0.09) 
