Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Santos had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.68%) and 2-1 (7.65%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (11.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.
