SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 66.16%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 14.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
66.16% ( -0.68) | 19.26% ( 0.34) | 14.58% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 52.94% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.48% ( -0.84) | 40.52% ( 0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.1% ( -0.86) | 62.9% ( 0.86) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.59% ( -0.42) | 11.41% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.83% ( -0.91) | 36.17% ( 0.91) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.76% ( -0.06) | 40.24% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.13% ( -0.05) | 76.87% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.21)2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.94% Total : 66.15% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.26% | 0-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.36% 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 14.58% |
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