SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 73.84%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 10.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 3-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.15%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
73.84% ( -0.13) | 15.55% ( 0.09) | 10.61% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 54.18% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.18% ( -0.36) | 32.82% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.48% ( -0.42) | 54.52% ( 0.42) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.4% ( -0.11) | 7.59% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.82% ( -0.29) | 27.17% ( 0.29) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.64% ( -0.19) | 41.36% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.12% ( -0.16) | 77.87% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.1% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.41% Total : 73.84% | 1-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.55% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.33% Total : 10.61% |
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