Although Freiburg ended a seven-match winless run away from home (five defeats) with a recent 1-0 success at struggling Bochum, St Pauli head into gameweek 22's fixture on a two-match unbeaten run on home soil and the psychological edge over the Breisgau Brazilians.
Thus, the 14th-placed hosts should continue their impressive Bundesliga record against Saturday's visitors by securing a marginal triumph.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 51.64%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
-0.48) 
0.06) 
