SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Bologna |
39.57% ( -1.94) | 25.35% ( 0.48) | 35.08% ( 1.46) |
| Both teams to score 56.33% ( -1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.57% ( -1.9) | 47.42% ( 1.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.36% ( -1.78) | 69.64% ( 1.78) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.29% ( -1.79) | 23.71% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.16% ( -2.65) | 57.83% ( 2.65) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.83% ( -0.04) | 26.17% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.75% ( -0.05) | 61.25% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Bologna |
| 1-0 @ 8.93% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.24)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 4.13% ( -0.35)3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.26)3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.24)4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 1% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.02% Total : 39.57% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.48)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.63) 1-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.42)1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.18)1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.3% Total : 35.08% |
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