A trip to Benfica will present a significantly sterner test than what Ajax have become used to in the Eredivisie, but the hosts are still finding their feet under Verissimo and cannot expect to emulate their group-stage win over Barcelona with ease.
Borussia Dortmund, Sporting and Besiktas were all no match for this free-scoring and defensively watertight Ajax outfit in the group stage, and we expect Ten Hag's side to claim a healthy first-leg advantage on Wednesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 51.89%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
