Ajax need no lessons in putting the ball in the back of the net at home - whether that be against domestic or continental counterparts - and Ten Hag's side can pick Benfica off as the Portuguese side go in search of goals themselves.
While Darwin Nunez is always a threat in and around the box, we cannot back Benfica with any real confidence even with the fit-again Yaremchuk named in the squad, and Ajax will enter this battle as the firm favourites to book their quarter-final tickets.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.02%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 23.19% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.3%) and 1-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
