One or two Marseille fans may have learned the hard way about underestimating Panathinaikos, whose week's worth of rest should do them the world of good against Jorge's goal-happy Braga.
The hosts' mettle will be put to the test far more than it was against Backa Topola, but their attacking firepower will likely be too hot for Panathinaikos to handle, and the Archbishops ought to head to Athens for next week's second leg defending a slender advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Panathinaikos win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Braga in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Braga.
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