Despite losing Antonio Colak to Rangers, there is no doubt Malmo still pack a punch in the final third, and they are capable of scoring more than once in Vilnius.
Though in good form, Zalgiris may be found out at this stage of qualifying, with their latest visitors - group stage participants last term - representing a significant step-up in class.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 50.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a FK Zalgiris win it was 1-0 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
-0.59) 
0.06) 
