The hosts were outplayed for the most part in the first leg, and while they should put on a better showing at home, it seems unlikely that they will be able to overturn this tie.
The visitors will prioritse keeping a clean sheet here, and if they get an early goal, we can see them sitting back and holding on to their lead to take their place in the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Larne had a probability of 29.27% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.32%) and 1-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Larne win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%).
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