Champions League | Last 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 15, 2022 at 8pm UK

Parc des Princes

PSG
1 - 0
Real Madrid

(Real Madrid win 3-2 on aggregate)

Mbappe (90+4')
Verratti (40'), Pereira (62'), Kimpembe (83'), Paredes (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Casemiro (37'), Militao (51'), Mendy (57'), Rodrygo (83')

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The Match

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 1-1 Real Madrid

This has all of the makings of a wonderful game of football, and it is set to be a fascinating first leg in Paris. Real Madrid will be desperate for Benzema to prove his fitness, and the Frenchman is expected to be available, so we are backing the visitors to claim a 1-1 draw ahead of the second leg in the Spanish capital. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 48.53%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Real Madrid
48.53%	23.32%	28.14%

Both teams to score 60.17%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.02%

40.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.63%

63.37%

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.9%

17.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.69%

47.3%

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.59%

27.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.11%

62.89%

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 48.53%

Real Madrid 28.14%

Draw 23.32%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 9.46% 1-0 @ 8.28% 2-0 @ 7.31% 3-1 @ 5.57% 3-0 @ 4.3% 3-2 @ 3.6% 4-1 @ 2.46% 4-0 @ 1.9% 4-2 @ 1.59% Other @ 4.06% Total : 48.53%	1-1 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 6.12% 0-0 @ 4.69% 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.32%	1-2 @ 6.93% 0-1 @ 6.07% 0-2 @ 3.93% 1-3 @ 2.99% 2-3 @ 2.64% 0-3 @ 1.69% 1-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.92% Total : 28.14%