SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Udinese | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 36.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.09%) and 0-2 (5.62%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | AC Milan |
36.73% ( 0.03) | 23.81% ( -0.01) | 39.46% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 62.16% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.05% ( 0.03) | 39.95% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.69% ( 0.04) | 62.31% ( -0.04) |
| Red Bull Salzburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.17% ( 0.03) | 21.82% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.96% ( 0.05) | 55.04% ( -0.05) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.51% ( 0) | 20.48% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.03% ( 0.01) | 52.96% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | AC Milan |
| 2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.18% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0)4-0 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.59% Total : 36.73% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.51% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.75% ( 0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 8.55% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.44% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.97% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.79% 2-4 @ 1.36% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 39.46% |
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