Even though Zenit will be fired up to face the Champions League holders, Chelsea have more to play for on Wednesday night as they aim to finish top of the group. Tuchel is likely to name a strong side at the Krestovsky Stadium, which should have enough quality to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 38.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.44%) and 1-3 (4.78%). The likeliest Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
Zenit St Petersburg	Draw	Chelsea
38.24%	22.38%	39.38%

Both teams to score 67.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.38%

32.62%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.71%

54.28%

Zenit St Petersburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.12%

17.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.35%

48.65%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.61%

17.38%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.2%

47.8%

Score Analysis

Zenit St Petersburg 38.24%

Chelsea 39.38%

Draw 22.38%

Zenit St Petersburg	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 8.06% 1-0 @ 5.35% 3-1 @ 4.63% 2-0 @ 4.61% 3-2 @ 4.05% 3-0 @ 2.64% 4-1 @ 1.99% 4-2 @ 1.74% 4-0 @ 1.14% 4-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 3.02% Total : 38.24%	1-1 @ 9.36% 2-2 @ 7.05% 0-0 @ 3.11% 3-3 @ 2.36% Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.38%	1-2 @ 8.19% 0-1 @ 5.44% 1-3 @ 4.78% 0-2 @ 4.76% 2-3 @ 4.11% 0-3 @ 2.77% 1-4 @ 2.09% 2-4 @ 1.8% 0-4 @ 1.21% 3-4 @ 1.03% Other @ 3.2% Total : 39.38%