While it has been proven time and time again that anything can happen in the Championship, Boro have been relentless under Carrick. Despite their recent defeat at Burnley, we expect the visitors to have few issues in registering a win and clean sheet at St Andrew's.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
-0.13) 
0.17) 
