SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Birmingham City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
26.87% ( -0.13) | 25.95% ( -0.04) | 47.17% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 50.57% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.85% ( 0.06) | 53.14% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.28% ( 0.05) | 74.71% ( -0.05) |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.28% ( -0.07) | 34.72% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.55% ( -0.08) | 71.45% ( 0.08) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.47% ( 0.11) | 22.52% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.9% ( 0.16) | 56.09% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Birmingham City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
| 1-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.15% Total : 26.87% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0)Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.95% | 0-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.19% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.57% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.32% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.02% Total : 47.16% |
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