Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.15%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.36%) and 1-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
