As Luton have confirmed their reputation for being tough to beat - and have a new manager to impress - they can grind out a low-scoring draw at the Riverside. Against a Boro side that won three of their final four league fixtures before the Championship came to a halt, that represents a good result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 53.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 20.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.02) 
