Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 46.95%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.64%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.

Result
Watford	Draw	Derby County
46.95%	26.88%	26.16%

Both teams to score 47.35%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.94%

57.06%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.05%

77.95%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.69%

24.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.3%

58.7%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.56%

37.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.77%

74.23%

Score Analysis

Watford 46.95%

Derby County 26.16%

Draw 26.88%

Watford	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.87% 2-0 @ 9.1% 2-1 @ 8.94% 3-0 @ 4.29% 3-1 @ 4.22% 3-2 @ 2.07% 4-0 @ 1.52% 4-1 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.45% Total : 46.95%	1-1 @ 12.64% 0-0 @ 9.1% 2-2 @ 4.39% Other @ 0.74% Total : 26.88%	0-1 @ 8.94% 1-2 @ 6.21% 0-2 @ 4.39% 1-3 @ 2.03% 0-3 @ 1.44% 2-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.71% Total : 26.16%