Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 0-1 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Bristol City
37.96%	27.74%	34.31%

Both teams to score 48.48%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.65%

57.35%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.82%

78.18%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.78%

29.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.83%

65.17%

Bristol City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.5%

31.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.11%

67.89%

Score Analysis

Derby County 37.95%

Bristol City 34.3%

Draw 27.74%

Derby County	Draw	Bristol City
1-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 8.05% 2-0 @ 6.97% 3-1 @ 3.3% 3-0 @ 2.86% 3-2 @ 1.91% 4-1 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.54% Total : 37.95%	1-1 @ 13.08% 0-0 @ 9.21% 2-2 @ 4.65% Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.74%	0-1 @ 10.63% 1-2 @ 7.56% 0-2 @ 6.14% 1-3 @ 2.91% 0-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.79% Other @ 2.91% Total : 34.3%