Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
32.22%	29.48%	38.31%

Both teams to score 43.24%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.36%

63.65%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.07%

82.93%

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.74%

36.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.96%

73.04%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.84%

32.16%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.35%

68.65%

Score Analysis

Birmingham City 32.22%

Derby County 38.3%

Draw 29.47%

Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 11.83% 2-1 @ 6.81% 2-0 @ 6% 3-1 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 2.03% 3-2 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.94% Total : 32.22%	1-1 @ 13.42% 0-0 @ 11.66% 2-2 @ 3.86% Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.47%	0-1 @ 13.22% 1-2 @ 7.61% 0-2 @ 7.5% 1-3 @ 2.88% 0-3 @ 2.84% 2-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 2.79% Total : 38.3%