Derby may be dropping out of the Championship, but Rooney and his players are doing so with plenty of pride and we think the Rams will end on a high with victory on home turf. Only Barnsley are on worse form than Cardiff and the Bluebirds are unlikely to put up much of a fight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Cardiff City
46.7%	25.63%	27.67%

Both teams to score 52.14%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.62%

51.38%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.8%

73.2%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.01%

21.99%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.7%

55.3%

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.85%

33.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.24%

69.76%

Score Analysis

Derby County 46.7%

Cardiff City 27.67%

Draw 25.63%

Derby County	Draw	Cardiff City
1-0 @ 11.04% 2-1 @ 9.23% 2-0 @ 8.36% 3-1 @ 4.66% 3-0 @ 4.22% 3-2 @ 2.57% 4-1 @ 1.76% 4-0 @ 1.6% 4-2 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.28% Total : 46.7%	1-1 @ 12.19% 0-0 @ 7.29% 2-2 @ 5.1% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.63%	0-1 @ 8.05% 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-2 @ 4.44% 1-3 @ 2.48% 2-3 @ 1.88% 0-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.46% Total : 27.67%