There is much more on the line for Derby but we cannot ignore the Rams' dreadful record away from home. Swansea are enjoying a good run of form and we think that the Welsh side will be victorious on this occasion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 53.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swansea City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Swansea City.
