There is much more on the line for Derby but we cannot ignore the Rams' dreadful record away from home. Swansea are enjoying a good run of form and we think that the Welsh side will be victorious on this occasion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 53.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 21.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swansea City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Swansea City.

Result
Swansea City	Draw	Derby County
53.62%	24.54%	21.85%

Both teams to score 49.69%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.23%

51.77%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.46%

73.54%

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.75%

19.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.03%

50.97%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.53%

38.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.78%

75.22%

Score Analysis

Swansea City 53.61%

Derby County 21.85%

Draw 24.53%

Swansea City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.2% 2-0 @ 10.05% 2-1 @ 9.6% 3-0 @ 5.52% 3-1 @ 5.27% 3-2 @ 2.52% 4-0 @ 2.27% 4-1 @ 2.17% 4-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.96% Total : 53.61%	1-1 @ 11.65% 0-0 @ 7.41% 2-2 @ 4.59% Other @ 0.89% Total : 24.53%	0-1 @ 7.08% 1-2 @ 5.57% 0-2 @ 3.38% 1-3 @ 1.77% 2-3 @ 1.46% 0-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.52% Total : 21.85%