Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.53%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Stoke City
32.18%	29.68%	38.14%

Both teams to score 42.69%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.69%

64.3%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.6%

83.4%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.35%

36.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.56%

73.44%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.39%

32.6%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.85%

69.14%

Score Analysis

Derby County 32.17%

Stoke City 38.14%

Draw 29.67%

Derby County	Draw	Stoke City
1-0 @ 11.99% 2-1 @ 6.75% 2-0 @ 6.02% 3-1 @ 2.26% 3-0 @ 2.01% 3-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 1.88% Total : 32.17%	1-1 @ 13.44% 0-0 @ 11.94% 2-2 @ 3.78% Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.67%	0-1 @ 13.39% 1-2 @ 7.53% 0-2 @ 7.5% 1-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 2.8% 2-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.69% Total : 38.14%