SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 48.74%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Norwich City | Draw | Watford |
48.74% ( 0.03) | 24.82% ( -0.03) | 26.44% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.71% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.14% ( 0.14) | 48.86% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.04% ( 0.13) | 70.96% ( -0.12) |
| Norwich City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.92% ( 0.07) | 20.08% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.68% ( 0.11) | 52.32% ( -0.1) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.21% ( 0.08) | 32.79% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.64% ( 0.09) | 69.35% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Norwich City | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.06% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.54% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 48.74% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.34% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.09% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 26.44% |
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