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Championship | Gameweek 18
Nov 28, 2023 at 8pm UK
Vicarage Road
NL

Watford
3 - 2
Norwich

Kone (30'), Rajovic (33'), Asprilla (77')
Livermore (18')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Batth (3'), Ui-jo (12')
Stacey (35'), Duffy (64'), Sainz (90+4'), Giannoulis (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leicester 2-0 Watford
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 1-0 QPR
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Watford 2-1 Norwich City

Watford were arguably too passive against league leaders Leicester on the weekend, and the home supporters at Vicarage Road will be demanding their men come out of the blocks quickly against Norwich. The Canaries were unconvincing during their victory over strugglers QPR on Saturday, and we cannot imagine Wagner recording three successive wins considering the current mood in East Anglia. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.67%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 23.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.

Result
WatfordDrawNorwich City
54.67% (0.522 0.52) 22.29% (-0.261 -0.26) 23.04% (-0.265 -0.27)
Both teams to score 58.49% (0.56 0.56)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.15% (0.897 0.9)40.84% (-0.89899999999999 -0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.76% (0.90900000000001 0.91)63.23% (-0.911 -0.91)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.1% (0.485 0.48)14.9% (-0.487 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.74% (0.919 0.92)43.26% (-0.921 -0.92)
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.73% (0.267 0.27)31.27% (-0.269 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.37% (0.309 0.31)67.62% (-0.31099999999999 -0.31)
Score Analysis
    Watford 54.67%
    Norwich City 23.04%
    Draw 22.29%
WatfordDrawNorwich City
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.87% (-0.213 -0.21)
2-0 @ 8.44% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
3-1 @ 6.23% (0.109 0.11)
3-0 @ 5.36% (0.056 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.62% (0.09 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.97% (0.102 0.1)
4-0 @ 2.55% (0.069 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.72% (0.071 0.07)
5-1 @ 1.13% (0.058 0.06)
5-0 @ 0.97% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 54.67%
1-1 @ 10.31% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-2 @ 5.71% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.66% (-0.194 -0.19)
3-3 @ 1.4% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.29%
1-2 @ 5.99% (-0.053 -0.05)
0-1 @ 5.42% (-0.183 -0.18)
0-2 @ 3.15% (-0.083 -0.08)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.21% (0.034 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.22% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 23.04%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Leicester 2-0 Watford
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 5-0 Rotherham
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Huddersfield 0-0 Watford
Saturday, November 4 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 2-2 Millwall
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Swansea 0-1 Watford
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 1-0 Sheff Weds
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 1-0 QPR
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Cardiff 2-3 Norwich
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 1-3 Blackburn
Sunday, November 5 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 3-1 Norwich
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 1-2 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 2-3 Leeds
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in Championship


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