SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Stoke City |
30.88% ( -0.2) | 25.06% ( -0.04) | 44.06% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 55.94% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.67% ( 0.1) | 47.32% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.45% ( 0.09) | 69.55% ( -0.1) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.25% ( -0.08) | 28.75% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.42% ( -0.1) | 64.58% ( 0.1) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.5% ( 0.15) | 21.49% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.46% ( 0.24) | 54.54% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0)3-0 @ 2% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.88% | 1-1 @ 11.84% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.67% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.06% | 0-1 @ 9.5% ( 0) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 7.3% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.67% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.74% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 44.06% |
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