SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 43.69%. A win for Watford had a probability of 30.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Stoke City |
30.17% ( -0.09) | 26.15% ( 0.03) | 43.69% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 52.07% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.8% ( -0.18) | 52.2% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.09% ( -0.16) | 73.91% ( 0.16) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.29% ( -0.16) | 31.71% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.86% ( -0.18) | 68.13% ( 0.18) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.24% ( -0.05) | 23.75% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.1% ( -0.08) | 57.9% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Watford | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 30.17% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.78% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.34% ( 0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 43.68% |
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