SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Port win with a probability of 50.29%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Port win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
50.29% ( 0.27) | 23.69% ( -0.08) | 26.02% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 57.06% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.72% ( 0.2) | 44.28% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.35% ( 0.19) | 66.65% ( -0.2) |
| Shanghai Port Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.32% ( 0.18) | 17.68% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.68% ( 0.31) | 48.32% ( -0.31) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.31% ( -0.04) | 30.68% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.06% ( -0.05) | 66.94% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.4% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.71% Total : 50.29% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.41% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.95% Total : 26.02% |
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