SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for Cangzhou Mighty Lions had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Cangzhou Mighty Lions win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
27.79% ( -0.12) | 26.07% ( 0.03) | 46.15% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 50.9% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.96% ( -0.18) | 53.04% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.37% ( -0.15) | 74.63% ( 0.15) |
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.06% ( -0.19) | 33.94% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.38% ( -0.21) | 70.61% ( 0.21) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.05% ( -0.03) | 22.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.28% ( -0.04) | 56.72% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 27.79% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.06% | 0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 9.12% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.44% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.14% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.65% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.93% Total : 46.15% |
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