SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 51.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 23.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Shanghai Shenhua win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
51.12% ( -1.31) | 24.92% ( 0.29) | 23.96% ( 1.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.03% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.76% ( -0.24) | 51.24% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.92% ( -0.21) | 73.07% ( 0.21) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.96% ( -0.62) | 20.04% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.74% ( -1.01) | 52.25% ( 1.01) |
| Shanghai Shenhua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.82% ( 0.8) | 36.18% ( -0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.04% ( 0.8) | 72.96% ( -0.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
| 1-0 @ 11.65% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.75% Total : 51.12% | 1-1 @ 11.84% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 6.02% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.87% Total : 23.96% |
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