SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.57%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
26.1% ( -0.7) | 24.2% ( 0.13) | 49.7% ( 0.57) |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.56% ( -1.11) | 46.44% ( 1.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.28% ( -1.05) | 68.72% ( 1.05) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.23% ( -1.13) | 31.77% ( 1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.8% ( -1.32) | 68.19% ( 1.32) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.26% ( -0.2) | 18.74% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.88% ( -0.34) | 50.11% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 3.91% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.71% Total : 26.1% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.19% | 0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 9.57% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 8.35% ( 0.28)1-3 @ 5.34% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.28% Total : 49.7% |
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