SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 59.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Guangzhou had a probability of 17.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Guangzhou win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Guangzhou |
59.91% ( -0.02) | 22.19% ( 0.01) | 17.9% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.62% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.66% ( -0.03) | 47.34% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.44% ( -0.03) | 69.56% ( 0.02) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.61% ( -0.02) | 15.4% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.8% ( -0.03) | 44.2% ( 0.03) |
| Guangzhou Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.84% ( -0.01) | 40.17% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.2% ( -0.01) | 76.8% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Guangzhou |
| 1-0 @ 11.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.82% 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.16% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.16% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.88% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.81% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.18% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 59.91% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.5% ( -0)Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.19% | 0-1 @ 5.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.9% |
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