SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
38.21% ( -0.17) | 26.56% ( -0.03) | 35.23% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 52.29% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.39% ( 0.13) | 52.6% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.74% ( 0.11) | 74.25% ( -0.11) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.19% ( -0.03) | 26.8% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.9% ( -0.05) | 62.09% ( 0.05) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.44% ( 0.18) | 28.56% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.65% ( 0.23) | 64.34% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 10.07% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 38.2% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 9.59% 1-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.68% Total : 35.23% |
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