SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shandong Taishan win with a probability of 52.95%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shandong Taishan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Beijing Guoan win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shandong Taishan |
23.08% ( 0.63) | 23.97% ( 0.31) | 52.95% ( -0.94) |
| Both teams to score 52.96% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.8% ( -0.63) | 48.2% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.65% ( -0.58) | 70.35% ( 0.58) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.7% ( 0.23) | 35.3% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.94% ( 0.24) | 72.06% ( -0.24) |
| Shandong Taishan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.85% ( -0.59) | 18.15% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.88% ( -1.01) | 49.12% ( 1.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shandong Taishan |
| 1-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.99% Total : 23.08% | 1-1 @ 11.38% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 10.93% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 9.71% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 5.53% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 5.31% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.42% Total : 52.95% |
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