SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chengdu Qianbao win with a probability of 50.24%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Henan Songshan Longmen had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chengdu Qianbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Henan Songshan Longmen win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chengdu Qianbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chengdu Qianbao | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
50.24% ( -0.41) | 25.97% ( 0.25) | 23.79% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 47.77% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.57% ( -0.79) | 55.43% ( 0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.37% ( -0.65) | 76.63% ( 0.66) |
| Chengdu Qianbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.88% ( -0.51) | 22.12% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.52% ( -0.77) | 55.48% ( 0.77) |
| Henan Songshan Longmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.34% ( -0.29) | 38.66% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.6% ( -0.28) | 75.4% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chengdu Qianbao | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
| 1-0 @ 12.9% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 9.73% ( 0)2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.99% Total : 50.24% | 1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.77% Total : 25.97% | 0-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 5.83% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.52% Total : 23.79% |
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