SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Zhejiang Professional had a probability of 33.58% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Zhejiang Professional win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Zhejiang Professional | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
33.58% ( 0.33) | 24.98% ( -0.05) | 41.44% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.27% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.94% ( 0.33) | 46.06% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.64% ( 0.31) | 68.36% ( -0.31) |
| Zhejiang Professional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.59% ( 0.36) | 26.41% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.43% ( 0.48) | 61.57% ( -0.48) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.82% ( 0.01) | 22.18% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.42% ( 0.01) | 55.58% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zhejiang Professional | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.8% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.23% Total : 33.58% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.98% | 1-2 @ 8.84% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 4.44% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.44% |
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