SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Henan Songshan Longmen had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Henan Songshan Longmen win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.
| Result | ||
| Henan Songshan Longmen | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
32.95% ( 0.12) | 26.06% ( -0.03) | 40.99% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.08% ( 0.15) | 50.92% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.2% ( 0.13) | 72.8% ( -0.13) |
| Henan Songshan Longmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.83% ( 0.15) | 29.17% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.89% ( 0.19) | 65.11% ( -0.19) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.46% ( 0.02) | 24.54% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.98% ( 0.02) | 59.01% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Henan Songshan Longmen | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 32.95% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.06% | 0-1 @ 10.05% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.08% 0-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 40.98% |
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