Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Al Ahly had a probability of 23.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for an Al Ahly win it was 1-0 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.2) 
