Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Al Ahly had a probability of 23.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for an Al Ahly win it was 1-0 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Al Ahly	Draw	Real Madrid
23.14% ( -0.05)	24.62% ( -0.15)	52.24% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 51.02% (

0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.2% (

0.53)

50.8% (

-0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.31% (

0.47)

72.69% (

-0.47)

Al Ahly Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.31% (

0.25)

36.69% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.52% (

0.25)

73.47% (

-0.25)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.58% (

0.28)

19.42% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.75% (

0.47)

51.24% (

-0.47)

Score Analysis

Al Ahly 23.14%

Real Madrid 52.24%

Draw 24.61%

Al Ahly	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 23.14%	1-1 @ 11.7% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.12% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.97% Total : 24.61%	0-1 @ 11.67% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 5.23% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 2.14% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.94% Total : 52.24%