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La Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 22, 2023 at 8pm UK
San Mamés Barria
RM

Athletic Bilbao
0 - 2
Real Madrid


Berchiche (50'), Vivian (58'), Herrera (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Benzema (24'), Kroos (90')
Camavinga (62'), Junior (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Villarreal 2-3 Real Madrid
Thursday, January 19 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-2 Real Madrid

This is another huge test for Real Madrid, with Athletic a very dangerous opponent. The Basque outfit have struggled to pick up wins in the league of late, though, and with Ancelotti's side chasing Barcelona, we are backing the reigning champions to navigate their way to a huge win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Madrid
31.53% (-0.012 -0.01) 26.07% (-0.012 -0.01) 42.39% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.92% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.63% (0.034999999999997 0.03)51.37% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.81% (0.027999999999999 0.03)73.19% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.66% (0.010000000000005 0.01)30.33% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.48% (0.011000000000003 0.01)66.52% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.97% (0.024000000000001 0.02)24.03% (-0.026 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.71% (0.036000000000001 0.04)58.29% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 31.53%
    Real Madrid 42.39%
    Draw 26.06%
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Madrid
1-0 @ 8.69% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.4%
2-0 @ 5.19% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-1 @ 2.94%
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.06% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 31.53%
1-1 @ 12.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.29% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.06%
0-1 @ 10.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.84% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 7.41%
1-3 @ 4.2% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 3.52% (0.0029999999999997 0)
2-3 @ 2.51% (0.0029999999999997 0)
1-4 @ 1.5% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 1.26% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 42.39%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Espanyol
Wednesday, January 18 at 7pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Real Sociedad 3-1 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, January 14 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-0 Osasuna
Monday, January 9 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Eldense 1-6 Athletic Bilbao
Thursday, January 5 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Betis 0-0 Athletic Bilbao
Thursday, December 29 at 6.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Sestao River 0-1 Athletic Bilbao
Tuesday, December 20 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Villarreal 2-3 Real Madrid
Thursday, January 19 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-3 Barcelona
Sunday, January 15 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Valencia (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, January 11 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana
Last Game: Villarreal 2-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, January 7 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Cacereno 0-1 Real Madrid
Tuesday, January 3 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Valladolid 0-2 Real Madrid
Friday, December 30 at 8.30pm in La Liga


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