SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
41.61% ( 0.23) | 25.45% ( 0.13) | 32.93% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.67% ( -0.68) | 48.32% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.53% ( -0.63) | 70.47% ( 0.63) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.92% ( -0.19) | 23.08% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.08% ( -0.27) | 56.92% ( 0.27) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.09% ( -0.56) | 27.91% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.47% ( -0.72) | 63.52% ( 0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.12% Total : 41.61% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.83% Total : 32.93% |
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