Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 51.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.98%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 1-0 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
-0.3) 
0.31) 
