SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 56.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 18.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Ecuador |
56.78% ( -0.55) | 24.42% ( 0.34) | 18.79% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 45.65% ( -0.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.18% ( -1.01) | 54.82% ( 1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.88% ( -0.84) | 76.12% ( 0.84) |
| Argentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.8% ( -0.59) | 19.19% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.12% ( -0.98) | 50.87% ( 0.99) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.5% ( -0.35) | 43.5% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.29% ( -0.29) | 79.71% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Argentina | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 13.78% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.8% Total : 56.78% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.66% Total : 24.42% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.76% Total : 18.8% |
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