SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 72.27%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Peru had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.98%) and 3-0 (10.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Argentina in this match.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Peru |
72.27% ( 1.28) | 18.62% ( -0.76) | 9.11% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 37.68% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.53% ( 1.47) | 51.47% ( -1.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.72% ( 1.27) | 73.27% ( -1.27) |
| Argentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.1% ( 0.83) | 12.9% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.69% ( 1.67) | 39.31% ( -1.68) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.26% ( -0.22) | 56.73% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.11% ( -0.13) | 88.89% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Argentina | Draw | Peru |
| 2-0 @ 15.34% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 14.98% ( -0.42)3-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.35)2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.94% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.34)4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.17)5-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.29% Total : 72.25% | 1-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.3) 0-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.44)2-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 18.62% | 0-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.38% Total : 9.11% |
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