Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
Result | ||
Almeria | Draw | Sevilla |
48.05% ( -1.25) | 23.9% ( 0.42) | 28.05% ( 0.83) |
Both teams to score 58.09% ( -0.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.3% ( -1.32) | 43.7% ( 1.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.91% ( -1.31) | 66.09% ( 1.31) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.67% ( -0.99) | 18.33% ( 0.99) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.57% ( -1.71) | 49.43% ( 1.7) |
Sevilla Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.13% ( -0.09) | 28.87% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.26% ( -0.11) | 64.73% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Almeria | Draw | Sevilla |
2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.22) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.17) 3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.5% Total : 48.05% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.3) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.89% | 1-2 @ 6.93% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.36) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.47% Total : 28.05% |
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