Sevilla certainly have the players to make this a difficult assignment for Atletico, but Simeone's side are in excellent form at the moment, and we are struggling to see anything other than a routine home success at Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a Sevilla win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
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