Osasuna clung to a goalless draw when these sides met in Bilbao six weeks ago - registering just three shots all match - but go into the semi-final in better form on the pitch and a far emptier treatment room off it.
Athletic are one of the most aggressive teams off the ball in La Liga but may struggle to reproduce their trademark intensity with so many absences, giving Osasuna the edge in the first leg of what promises to be an enthralling tie.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.
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