Coelho have problems with their organisation and structure away from home, so we expect Fogo to have some scoring opportunities. However, the home side have not been consistently sharp enough in the final third to suggest they can win in the same convincing fashion that America did last month.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 53.42%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 21.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
0.6) 
-0.24) 
