SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Fluminense | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | America Mineiro | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Santos | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Flamengo | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Botafogo | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Avai | 10 | -4 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.22%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Botafogo |
42.46% ( -1.48) | 28.58% ( 1.04) | 28.96% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 44.49% ( -2.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.44% ( -3.37) | 61.56% ( 3.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.58% ( -2.57) | 81.41% ( 2.58) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -2.38) | 28.7% ( 2.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.48% ( -3.07) | 64.52% ( 3.07) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.39% ( -1.49) | 37.6% ( 1.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.62% ( -1.49) | 74.38% ( 1.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| America Mineiro | Draw | Botafogo |
| 1-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.79) 2-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.4)3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 3.42% ( -0.42)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.28)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.21)Other @ 1.6% Total : 42.45% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 10.79% ( 1.29)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.37)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.57% | 0-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.87) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.18)Other @ 1.71% Total : 28.96% |
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