Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
-0.26) 
0.37) 
